系统综述与元分析：工作记忆与“草率下结论”推理偏差的关联

Jumping to conclusions (JTC) is a reasoning bias that has been linked to delusions. Studies have explored the contribution of impaired working memory to JTC, but this research has yet to be synthesized. A systematic review and two multilevel meta-analyses were conducted to quantify the association between working memory and JTC. One meta-analysis included correlational studies, whereas the other included studies comparing working memory among people with and without JTC biases. Meta-regressions tested the moderating effects of clinical status and JTC task difficulty in the correlation meta-analysis. Twenty-three studies ( N = 2,058) met the inclusion criteria. A small but significant pooled effect for the association between working memory and JTC was present across correlational studies ( k = 30; Fisher’s z = 0.16, 95% confidence interval [CI; 0.09, 0.23], p k = 44; Hedges’ g = −0.43, 95% CI [−0.51, −0.34], p < .001). There was inconclusive evidence of moderation by clinical status or task difficulty. Findings were limited by differences in the way JTC was operationalized and measured across studies, requiring included studies to be divided between two meta-analyses and reducing statistical power. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved)

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